Australia’s new COVID-19 wave has arrived. Over 40,000 new cases were reported in the past week, representing a nationwide new case jump of roughly 20%. It comes amid an increase of new sublineages of the SARS-CoV-2 detected in cases and wastewater sampling around the country.

Those include Omicron variants like BQ and XBB, which could account for at least 15% of cases based on sampled sequences. Overall, these and other new versions of the virus are on the rise in Australia, while the progenitor BA.4 and BA.5 strains are declining. “We’re starting to see an increase in COVID cases, and changes in the variants circulating in New South Wales, which tells us that we’re entering the next COVID wave,” NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant said in a pre-recorded message released by the state’s health department this week.

“By looking at all the local information we have and what’s happening overseas, we believe COVID cases will rise in the coming weeks.” Hybrid immunity – a combination of antibodies from vaccination and prior infection – should leave most healthy adults in a strong position to fight off a subsequent infection, although more vulnerable groups such as those with underlying health conditions, elderly and immunocompromised.

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